The overall spread in the range of estimates

During the year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revis its forecasts for the Russian economy three times. In January 2022, IMF experts prict Russia’s GDP growth by 2.8%, and by April the estimate had chang to a fall of 8.5%. In July, the IMF adjust its forecast to -6%, and by October – to -3.4%. Of the International Monetary Fund exce 11 percentage points. Forecasts were chang quarterly in Russia as well. In particular, in December, the Central Bank once again chang its assessment of the dynamics of Russian GDP for the year – instead of October -3.5%, the Central Bank prict a decline of only.

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In August 2022 the Central Bank expect a fall of 4-6%, in April – 8-10% . The Ministry of Economic Development expect a decline of 8.8% in April . In August Cayman Islands Phone Number List the ministry rais expectations to -4.4%, in September – to -2.9%. Almost all summer and spring forecasts turn out to be far from reality. At the end of the year, the fall in GDP should have been 2.5%, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Council for Strategic in mid-December 2022. Rosstat will publish official data on the dynamics of Russian GDP for 2022 in February 2023, but it is already clear that there will be neither 15% nor 7% contraction of the economy.

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The World Bank expect the growth of the Russian

Russia was able to avoid the most negative scenarios BT Lists and subject matter experts were forc to explain why they change their assessment of the Russian economy so often. A similar situation with macroeconomic forecasts develop in the pandemic years of 2020–2021. Three years ago, the IMF prict a contraction of the Russian economy by 5.5%, and the World Bank – by 1%. The final result was at the level of -2.7%. In the next 2021, economy by 2.9%, the IMF economists includ growth at the level of 3.8% in their model. The final estimate of Rosstat for the year was.

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